Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1139 AM CST Sun Nov 03 2024
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS...
CORRECTED FOR WORDING LAST PARAGRAPH
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms, associated with tornadoes, large
hail, and wind damage, are likely on Monday and Monday night from
the Southern Plains north-northeastward into the Ozarks and mid
Mississippi Valley. A few of the tornadoes could be strong.
...Southern Plains/Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley...
Water vapor imagery currently shows an upper-level trough in the
Desert Southwest, with a mid-level jet translating southeastward
through California within the western part of the system. The jet
max will move through the base of the upper-level trough tonight and
eject northeastward into the southern Plains on Monday. As this
occurs, a surface low will develop Monday morning across northwest
Texas, with the low deepening and moving northeastward across
western Oklahoma during the day. To the south of the low, a dryline
from southwest Oklahoma into west-central Texas will sharpen and
move eastward. A moist airmass will be in place to the east of the
dryline with surface dewpoints in the 60s F. The moist airmass will
extend from the southern Plains northeastward into the Ozarks and
Mid Mississippi Valley. The low-level moisture, combined with lift
associated with the approaching upper-level system, along with
instability and shear will be favorable for severe storms,
especially during the afternoon and evening.
Over the top of the moist airmass, a broad belt of strong low-level
flow will maintain moisture advection throughout the day ahead of
the approaching trough. Scattered strong to potentially severe
storms are expected during the morning from near the dryline in
west-central Texas, eastward into the Ark-La-Tex near the axis of a
low-level jet. As the system moves into the southern High Plains
during the afternoon, large-scale ascent will become more focused,
and the low-level jet will strengthen over the eastern part of the
southern Plains into the Ark-La-Tex. In response, several line
segments will organize and increase in intensity from north Texas
into central and eastern Oklahoma and far southeast Kansas.
A consensus of model forecast soundings for Monday/21Z to the east
of the dryline have MLCAPE in the 1200 to 2000 J/kg range, 0-6 km
shear of 50 to 60 knots, and 0-3 storm-relative helicity in the 250
to 350 m2/s2 range. This will be favorable for supercells with
tornadoes, large hail and wind damage. 0-3 km storm-relative
helicity is forecast to increase into the 350 to 450 m2/s2 range
during the late afternoon and early evening, becoming favorable for
strong tornadoes. The potential for strong tornadoes will be
associated with the more dominant supercells that remain
semi-discrete. The greatest potential for strong tornadoes is
expected from eastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas. Large hail will
also be possible with supercells. The potential for wind damage will
become likely with supercells, and will be increasingly possible
with line-segments during the afternoon. The upper-level trough will
move into the southern Plains during the evening, as the associated
dryline and low-level jet shift eastward into the Ark-La-Tex and
Ozarks. Ahead of the dryline, a nearly continuous line of severe
storms is expected in the evening, which will likely be associated
with tornadoes and wind damage.
..Broyles.. 11/03/2024
